Why does everyone want to win third in the German election?

“Capitalism is armed robbery,” writes graffiti on the subway wall. “But in Berlin, German capitalists are doing what capitalism is best at creating new jobs and new industries.” “Berlin was seen as poor but sexy,” said Klaus Wowereit, former mayor of Berlin, but last year, German capital boasted the country’s top growth of 2.7%, more than the national average of 0.7%. A city, shanty town and bombsites have become a city of high-tech start-ups, and now technology giants such as Google and Microsoft are. Cheap rents and boisterous nightlife attract clever millennials from all over the world. Unemployment has fallen to its lowest level since the fall of the Berlin wall.

Berlin’s Wirtschaftswunder is a microcosm of Germany’s booming economy, and for the main reason – except for a catastrophic accident – the Angela Merkel will return within two weeks. The national unemployment rate is also the lowest since reunification, with a quarterly growth rate of 0.6%, two times that of the United kingdom. For third years, the German government announced a budget surplus (24 billion euros last year, the largest since unification). No wonder Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union voted close to 40 cents, while the Martin Schulz’s Social Democrats were around 25.cheap-swimming-suits

So how did Merkel change the election she was doomed to last year and turn a defeat into a dead rubber? It’s economic, stupid. It’s proof of her talent for sitting still (if Merkel has a spell, that’s “don’t do something – stand there”). In her unfortunate decision to move one million to Germany two years ago, a decision she made would have disastrous consequences – even if some of her closest supporters urged her to step down. However, Merkel is good at lying on the ground, waiting for the bad news of the past (she likes to delay and even spawned a new German verb, merkeln).

In Sunday’s televised debate with Schultz, her actual performance is far beyond his impassioned speech. Schultz said, “Germany is a prosperous country, but not every German is prosperous.”. Merkel reminded him only that unemployment had fallen by half since her election as prime minister. The long-term impact of her immigration policy – or lack of it – will be profound, but now it has slipped away from scratch. Her millions of immigrants may be a time bomb, but for voters, the economic boom she oversees is now here.

Schultz and the siege of SPD, this is the biggest irony, because this is the last party Prime Minister Gerhard Schr o der, who is the approach of the economic transformation countries. Schr der, labour reform revival of the German economy, welfare cuts and improve enterprises to hire and fire more easily. These reforms were given to Germany, but their disaster left wing. The SPD chairman Oskar Lafontaine resigned to form a new political party, butterfly Linke (left), opposed by former Communists and leftists from SPD. This escape split left-wing votes, lost to Merkel in the 2005 election, de Schr. The reform of Schr o do Schroder treatment, the main beneficiary and Merkel’s CDU has been.

If the German election is the first past the post on the basis of the SPD might have been able to oppose the development of a new identity, but the country’s system of proportional representation (formulated the victorious allies of World War II to prevent the party won an overwhelming power) has tied them in a series of so-called major League CDU. As Mr Nick Craig has proved, this alliance rarely benefits small parties. As Cameron under the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party, the SPD also took responsibility for the failure of the alliance, and Merkel’s CDU took credit due to its success.

When Schultz became leader in March, the SPD also had a brief surge of troops, but it looked like a stunning rebound. Schultz was a strong campaigner with a common charm, while Merkel was a well known wooden man. However, in 12 he lost to Merkel, Schr der, labour reform keep lead weight in his party’s neck. Schultz does not condemn his party’s plan, however, it gives the social democratic working class foundation constantly to shock the party and raise support for the left party.

Blairites and corbynistas plan a bitter divorce, die Linke evolution is useful when a left-wing party split lesson. Although Germany become the third largest party, still far away from the power butterfly Linke, but its relative success continue to split the left-wing vote, and maintain a conservative CDU in the office.

The German left, the left party and the SPD will be the obvious solution, and may even give them enough votes to topple Merkel. They have tried it at the local level. Berlin is currently dead from the SPD and the greens coalition, but in the west of Germany, where the former Communists viewed it more differently, the idea has proved poisonous. Linke. In the local elections in North Rhine Westphalia (SPD industrial center) earlier this year, with the left party SPD League prospects the soft left voters, CDU will be almost impossible to win.

In the British electoral system, the upcoming elections will be a failure of the CDU, but in our system to their public relations, Merkel must be in a ruling coalition, it is almost inevitable. Her CDU will almost certainly win, the SPD will almost certainly appear in a distant second, the problem is puzzling for a total of third German experts. Under German system, this is not consolation prize. The coming third will be in the next four years, Germany’s policy (this is with PR’s troubled characters, not the winner, who often uses maximum power).

There are four for third, around 10 points: the green party, the Liberal Democrats and the new German butterfly Linke anti immigration party, instead of F (AFD) Deutschland R. The Liberal Democratic Party, the Liberal Party leader of the classic charm of the Christian Lindner is thirty years of age, Merkel’s love of alliance partners. She is also happy to reach an agreement with the green party. Of course, she did not die Linke or AFD, however many seats, they win, but if the person is third, this is Merkel and her CDU headache.

No other people with AFD (now), anti immigrant rhetoric on account of it, but after a few weeks, this is the first time, it will be in the Bundestag (a party to win $5 of the national vote won the German national parliament and AFD seems to be at least). The presence of the Bundestag in Germany gives the authority and position of AFD. If it were the third largest party, the task would not be neglected. Merkel will never use it, but she will be under great pressure to reshape her party’s policies on immigration and integration.

AFD politicians ruffled feathers in the left and right: last week, the Department deputy head of Alexander Gauland sparked outrage when he suggested aydan zoguz, the Merkel administration integration minister, should be set up in Turkey (ozoguz is a German American Turkey). However, different from the foot slip, which have put the Department on the defensive, the party’s propaganda posters have impressed. In the left-handed Berlin, even here, its posters occupy the streets and make the other party appear bland and outdated.

German political posters are usually an absurd form: a cool picture of a suspect, a serious candidate, a brighter future, Germany, or some such nonsense. In addition to these wacky ads, AFD’s provocative posters stand out a mile. In stark contrast, Nigel Farage’s notorious repute “breakthrough” poster, AFD chose to remain positive, showing the party as leisurely, fun liberals, concerned about what the Germans lost (allegedly). The most striking is the image of two (white) women in tight bathing suits. “Burkas?” “Read” the slogan: “we stand shoulder to shoulder at cheap swimming suits nightclub (‘burkas?” We stand at Bikinis nightclub. Another poster depicts a happy pregnant (white) woman lying on the grass. The slogan reads, “new Deutschland”? Machen wir selber (New German? We have to do it ourselves”. Whether you think these ads are laudable or mean, you have to admire their ingenuity. Instead of being pessimistic (in the boom years, selling cunningly), AFD has come up with a sexy, anti immigrant movement that feels good.

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